2025 Shows Us We Can Win Big in 2026
The midterms, like odd-numbered year elections, are mostly about who turns out
You know, one thing I have learned in my long years of experience in politics is that winning is a whole lot better than losing, so I am smiling very broadly this morning. I can’t remember any election where there was this kind of sweeping of the table, where we didn’t lose a single major race.
This was a dominant victory, and the number one reason it was so dominant is that Democrats are so damn pissed off at Trump and his toadies in the Republican Party. Even the races that were supposed to be closer, like the New Jersey Governor’s race and the Pennsylvania state Supreme Court races, were won in landslide fashion.
The Democratic turnout in election after election yesterday was enormous for an off-year election, and the Republican turnout was flat. We even did better in rural counties than we have done in a while, reversing a precipitous decline in recent years. Black and Hispanic returned to the Democratic fold as well.
I don’t think it is an accident that this extraordinary result happened in the middle of this government shutdown fight. Voters are blaming the Republicans for this shutdown, and even more importantly they see the Democrats fighting hard for something really important to them, their health care. Showing this kind of fight on a core economic issue is exactly what we need to be doing to improve our brand with the working class voters we need to win elections.
Now look, let’s be clear: one election is exactly that, it’s one election. It’s an indicator of where we are in this moment of time, not a certainly of anything in the future. But it shows us the way:
Fight like hell on big issues that matter to working class folks like health care and affordability
Keep people excited about taking on Trump by showing no fear in our battles with him
Turn out, turn out, turn out
The Republicans are going to keep cheating. They are going to keep intimidating people. They are going to keep trying to suppress votes. But if Democrats stick to those three principles above, we will win the 2026 elections in a big way.
Even if they do their worst on redistricting, we will win the House back. And yes, we will win the Senate back too. And we will pick up half a dozen Governor races and hundreds of state legislative seats.
It will be that kind of year if we do the hard work we need to do to keep this momentum going.
Just the other day, I wrote about how Democrats tend to worry about everything and set their hair on fire way too much. I am hoping that the decisive victory yesterday will stop that trend, at least for a moment. We still have plenty of problems to solve as a party; we still have enormous amounts of work to do and money to raise and Republicans to fight off. Let’s not take yesterday’s extraordinary results as a sign that all our problems are solved. But let’s also understand that we have a path to winning big in 2026 and 2028.
In here is a really good Rx about what to do next to sustain the momentum we have off of Nov. 4 election. One recommendation needs to be carried out, in a very organized campaign, by MOCs: "Keep people excited about taking on Trump by showing no fear in our battles with him." We can do this!
Excellent analysis, Mike, and good advice for Dems going forward. I hope the Dem Establishment listens. Thank you!