To: Democrats and progressive leaders
From: Celinda Lake and Mike Lux
Re: Strategy for 2026 endgame
As we head into the final month of the 2026 election, the two of us wanted to make some final recommendations on endgame message and political strategy, both for persuadable voters and turnout targets.
The Opportunity Election
This is an opportunity election. We have the opportunity to have a historically dominant election year, breaking into red states and districts in a way that we have not seen since the 2006-8 elections, and importantly, win elections in the states that were swing states for Clinton and Obama but have swung heavily Republican over the last 12 years: Iowa and Ohio.
However, for all the exciting polls all of us are seeing, we are not there yet. In the closing weeks, the Republicans will be spending massively and attacking aggressively, especially on culture war issues in social media. Democrats have to overcome the negative feelings about our party by both base voters and swing voters. We have to get young voters and other base voters to turn out and vote, and we have to show working-class swing voters we really are on their side.
The good news is that most base voters and swing voters respond strongly to the same set of economic issues. We believe the way to insure a big victory at the polls is a strong dose of economic populism- not just talking about affordability, but being specific who the villains are and how to solve the problem: by stopping the war in Iran which is driving up prices, by cracking down on price gouging and the corporate abuse of power, and by driving down health care and drug prices, forcing the utilities to lower their rates, and by raising wages so that people can afford what they need.
Base and swing voters are both driven by economic pressures and anti-establishment anger.
Neither base nor swing voters feel like Democrats have an economic plan that will help them cope with their increasingly economically stressed lives. Base voters are motivated to turn out against Trump, but without a strong sense that Democrats will actually fight to make their lives better, we will not get the truly extraordinary turnout that is still possible.
Democrats need a narrative arc that links a rigged economy to a rigged politics. This is more than just an affordability agenda or cost narrative. It is populist, putting Democrats clearly on the side of real change against a corrupt establishment. It provides us a structural analysis of how we got here.
Another critical factor for the end game message specifically relates to base voters, which is that we will need a powerful populist message to help us turn people out. The field and GOTV work historically being done by the 501c groups will be happening far less than usual because donors have not put money into this part of the ground game in the way they have done in the past.
Even if more money comes in the final weeks to do this work, all the groundwork not done earlier in the year will hurt our turnout efforts. This means we need an especially sharp message to motivate voters in the final weeks. Mushy, generic messages devoid of hard hitting stories about why things are so out of whack and how to solve those problems are not going to produce the turnout we need.
Voters that Democrats have considered part of their base in the past that moved away from us in 2024, especially young people, Latinos, and Black men, are moving back our way because of their anger at Trump. That is the good news. The threat is that the Republican social media infrastructure targeting these pockets of voters is still very strong, and Democrats need to not assume they are automatically with us — we need to keep inoculating them from attacks, and on working to make sure the ones supporting us get to the polls.
Swing voters, as they tend to be, are complicated. They live in every demographic cohort, but most of them are working-class people because, well, most voters are working-class people, and most higher educated professionals made up their minds about Trump long ago. Women over 50, Catholics (both white ethnic and Latino), and residents of rural areas and small and medium-sized working-class towns are the biggest groups of swing voters in this election.
Cultural touchstones matter to these voters, and culture war politics still have a bite. The culture war is the Republicans’ version of the populist narrative. It doesn’t have the power that it did in 2024, but it still helps them compete by energizing their base and gives pause to swing voters about Democrats. Prebuttal and inoculation strategies are really important, and not speaking down to folks is critical: we need to show these voters that we are not insensitive to their legitimate concerns.
However, in this moment especially, campaigns should keep laser focused on the fact that working-class families’ lives and attitudes are dominated by economic pressures. Working-class swing voters are cynical, angry, and deeply anti-powers-that-be — not only in terms of being anti-incumbent, but in terms of their anger at the billionaires and wealthy corporations they think are abusing their power.
Solutions vs General Rhetoric
There are many in the political world who argue that in these times, vibes matter more to voters than issues. We want to push back on that idea.
Because voters are so cynical, and because they are inundated with one ad after another, we believe they are rebelling against traditional generalized political rhetoric. Democrats need to connect specific acts of corruption to specific outcomes that hurt their own families, e.g. because the Republicans took money from Big Pharma, Medicare is still not negotiating enough on drug prices.
It’s not enough to say you will fight for the people; you need to say what specifically you are going to fight for. It’s not enough to talk about affordability, you have to name what and who are driving up costs, and how you are going to deal with those problems, e.g. big food companies are price gouging, and you are going to fight to abolish price gouging and force more competition in the food industry. You can’t just talk about the problems — people already know what the problems are; you have to talk about the solutions.
Another key point: don’t just talk about affordability in terms of prices. People know that rolling back prices is not easy and will not happen overnight: they want their wages to go up, too. Make bigger paychecks a central part of your economic plan: a living minimum wage, better jobs, and making it easier to join unions, which are at an all time high in popularity. Voters want you to fight against corporate profiteering and price gouging, but they also believe that higher pay is central to them having a better life.
And be specific about who the villains are, too. Too many Democratic politicians shy away from naming the corporations abusing their power and making life more miserable for people, but the people being hammered by higher utility rates, higher gas prices, and jacked up grocery prices know who to blame, and when politicians are hesitant to name the those companies, they think those politicians may be bought off by them.
Tell voters your economic plan, and who you are going to fight for and against.
We think that Democrats as a party made a mistake earlier in this cycle in not creating and talking a lot about an economic plan for the next Congress if we win a majority. Americans are desperate for solutions for their economic problems. They know they don’t like what Trump and the Republicans have done, but they also don’t think Democrats have a plan to make things better.
The good news is that many outstanding Democratic candidates are talking about their economic plans, and we believe that the strength of our candidates and campaigns can carry us to victory.
Do not make the assumption, though, as you close this campaign that just because the working-class voters your campaign is talking to are angry at Trump and the Republicans for high prices and the war that they will automatically flock our way. Many of them are still angry at us, too.
Your campaigns need to show them that you have a plan — a specific plan — for getting us out of the mess we are in, and that you will stand up to the special interests and the establishment to fight for that plan — and for them. That doesn’t mean getting down into the weeds or using inside-the-Beltway talk about policies, but you need to be clear about how you will work to improve the economic stress they are under.
Don’t take anyone for granted in this election. This is an angry, cynical electorate, and they are being manipulated by social media disinformation.
We believe that the potential for a Democratic landslide is building, but we also believe that the deal is not done. The difference between this being a good year — one where we pick up just enough House seats to win a narrow majority and add a couple of Senate seats, but don’t regain control, versus a Democratic landslide where we pick up at least 20 House seats, half a dozen or more Senate seats, and several governor seats and state legislative chambers — is in whether Democrats finish strong.
Democrats need to show that they are fighting to improve working families’ lives. If they succeed in telling that story, this could be a year where our gains exceed 2006 and 2008, and where the gains go deeply into red turf.
Totally agreed
Well done Mike. Let's get it done.