The Double Dilemma for Democrats

There’s a winning message strategy for Democrats even in red districts but neither Hakeem Jeffries nor Aftyn Behn got it right last week

There’s a winning message strategy for Democrats even in red districts but neither Hakeem Jeffries nor Aftyn Behn got it right last week

Democrats should be feeling pretty good about their 2026 chances — I am optimistic enough that I think we have a serious shot at winning the Senate.

But two things happened last week that show Democrats still know how to do messaging that doesn’t work, even in these politically favorable times.

Strong floor, no ceiling, bad idea

The first was Hakeem Jeffries unveiling his new slogan “Strong Floor, No Ceiling”. He got this idea from a venture capitalist, who wrote a book with this title to, he said, appeal to moderates in both parties. This kind of moderation was what I was referring to when I wrote this article about what moderation looks like to those in the Beltway bubble.

It’s a terrible slogan for this populist moment where Trump won against Democrats by attacking them as the elitists, and when every single poll and focus group and dial test I know of shows that the only hope for Democrats is an economically populist message focused on taxing the rich, stopping corporate abuses of power, and taking on CEOs and giant monopolistic companies.

But don’t be too hard on Jeffries: this is a long term Democratic Party problem. For the almost 40 years I have been involved in the national Democratic Party, we have faced this dilemma: we have to figure out how to appeal to enough big donors to raise the money we need to compete with the right wing billionaires of the world. There are plenty of ways for individual candidates with a progressive populist profile to raise good money from online donors and wealthy progressive forces: Bernie raised more than Hillary did once his campaign took off in 2016. For the DCCC and DSCC, that kind of populist insurgent money doesn’t much exist, so party leaders like Jeffries try and contort themselves like a pretzel to find a message that will work for voters but not piss off the big donor base in the party.

Such efforts rarely work, and this one was a particularly bad idea.

Running as a national Democrat in a Republican district

The other dilemma was faced by the Democratic congressional candidate for Tennessee’s 7th district, a +22 for Trump seat that combined a little sliver of Nashville, some wealthy Republican suburbs, and a lot of rural Tennessee. Behn, whose career as a state legislator has been very progressive, decided to lean into that progressive history and hope that in a Democratic year, she could rally enough excited Democrats to win the seat. Behn did a lot of things right, especially her focus on lowering grocery prices, and she is a candidate with a lot of charisma who fired people up, but as soon as I saw that Kamala Harris was invited to the district to help turnout the Democratic vote, I knew the race was over.

Ever since Election Day, Democrats have been patting themselves on the back because Behn only lost by 9 in a R+22 district, but we need to get out of the mindset of feeling good when we lose by less than last time. Democrats are going to have to win more Republican districts in places with lots of rural turf, especially iifthe Supreme Court decimates the Voting Rights Act, as they are almost certain to do. But we are fully capable of winning more of those tough races if our candidates have the right strategy.

The winning strategy for Republican leaning places

In order to have a chance in Republican leaning states and districts, Democratic candidates need to simultaneously explain why you are a Democrat, while also showing your independence from the national party. A majority of voters in red leaning districts just don’t like what they think they know about the national Democratic Party.

The best way to do that is a combination of economic populism, being straightforward while leading with your values on the tough social issues, and openly criticizing national Democrats for some of the dumb stuff they have done. The last thing you should do is invite national Democrats like Harris to come to your district. Instead, you should be saying stuff like this:

“I am a Democrat because I didn’t want to join a party whose main economic policy seems to be handing out more huge tax breaks to billionaires and profitable corporations. I wanted to be in a party that would fight monopolistic corporations and arrogant CEOs who are jacking up our prices and killing small businesses, to be in a party that would raise the minimum wage so it was a living wage and fight for more power and dignity for people in their workplace.

“Both parties have a lot to answer for. I didn’t like it when Bill Clinton pushed for NAFTA and more trading on unequal terms with China. I didn’t like it when Barack Obama bailed out Wall Street before helping workiworkiople. I didn’t like when Biden and Harris were too slow to combat inflation.

“But I will also be straight with you. I know a lot of you voted for Donald Trump, and I don’t blame you for that, but I didn’t like it when Trump and the Republicans in Congress cut Medicaid and rural hospitals to give trillions of dollars in more tax cuts for the wealthy. I don’t like that he is spending more time on tearing down the White House and threatening our allies with price hiking tariffs than he is figuring out how to lower prices and raise wages. I don’t like that his” billionaire tech bro friends are getting everything they want while the rest of us don’t get much of anything.”

You can run as a proud Democrat in Republican districts if you show folks that you don’t agree with the national Democrats. And when you are asked the tough questions on social issues, don’t dance around on the issues and change the subject; lead with your values. Tell people how you understand theirdoubts and fears about the trans issue, but that you hate bullies and trans kids need to be treated with respect and understanding. Tell people that you agree we need to secure our border and deport immigrants convicted of violent crime, but that immigrant families are just like the rest of us in wanting better lives for their families, and they deserve to be treated with fairness and get due process. Tell people that we all need to be kept safe from crime and violence, that violent criminals convicted fairly deserve to be in jail, but that the number one way to stop crime is prevention.

Conservative voters may not agree with you on these issues, but they will respect and appreciate your honesty and your values. We don’t need for swing voters to agree with us on everything, they never will, but connecting with them honestly will open the door to their support.

The Choice

To get the gavels back, Democrats are going to have to win in Republican leaning districts. We are well positioned to do that in this cycle: people are leaning our way and Democrats are fired up to vote while Republicans are discouraged. But we’re not going to win with muddled messages designed by venture capitalists. We have to make a choice in 2026 and 2028: messages that appeal to working class voters, or messages that appeal to our big donors. I vote that we take the hit on our money supply, because our grassroots donors are going to be as fired up as they have ever been if we give them a populist message.

And our candidates running in those red districts also need to make a choice. You can run as a conventional Democrat hoping that in a good Democratic year you can sweep into victory. That will work in some cases. But to truly have a chance to win in districts like Aftyn Behn’s you have to show voters that you are a different kind of Democrat, one willing to take on the party establishment and the big money donors.