The Truth About a "Blue Wave"

Start kicking.

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Thursday night was a Holy Shit moment in Democratic politics.

Arguably a Holy Fucking Shit moment, if you want to be technical about it.

In case you missed it, here’s a recap:

• Shawn Harris, a Black retired brigadier general, cattle farmer, and Democrat, got 44% of the vote in Marjorie Taylor Green’s blood red GOP district (votes still being counted). That number represents a 30 point swing for the district away from Trump’s voteshare in 2024.

• In Wisconsin, Chris Taylor, a liberal Supreme Court justice was elected with a 21% swing from Kamala Harris’s performance in 2024.

• And that’s on top of other recent mega-swings, like Democrat Emily Gregory winning with a 20% shift in the Florida district that includes Mar-A-Lago, or Eileen Higgins riding a 19 point swing to become the first Democratic mayor of Miami since before Britney Spears dropped “Baby, One More Time” in 1999.

These shifts aren’t just happening because Democrats’ more educated coalition turns out at higher rates in special elections; Democratic candidates are also winning independents in these races by overwhelming margins, mostly on account of them recognizing that everything is fucked.

Farmers know how badly tariffs have hurt them.

Latinos know that ICE could grab anyone at any time, regardless of citizenship, based on the color of their skin.

And everyone knows that gas prices are up because Trump attacked Iran without good reason.

If these swings of 20-30 points continue happening through the midterms, scores of House seats will flip and Democrats can win the Senate.

But if you’ve ever been surfing or boogie boarding, you know that you can’t catch a wave by sitting back and doing nothing.

To catch a wave, you’ve got to get yourself just ahead of it and kick forward like your life depends on it. Then, when you’re right at the front of the wave, you can ride it all the way in to shore.

In practical terms, that means:

1. It’s time to start donating. Democratic fundraising has been struggling since 2024 because donors have been understandably pissed. But part of the reason Shawn Harris in GA was able to run 30 points ahead of Trump’s performance in 2024 – instead of 20 like the recent winners in Florida and Wisconsin – is because he had money to mount a real campaign. Good campaigns can outperform their environment by as much as 10 points, which on top of a 15-20 point Democratic environment puts all kinds of races in play at every level of the ballot.

2. It’s time to run for office. If you’ve ever thought about it, now is the time. If you know someone who you think might be good at it, especially someone in a red or purple state, pester them until they get in. Organizations like Run For Something and Contest Every Race have staff standing by, ready to walk you through the logistics – which are not as complicated as you fear. We cannot let a single seat anywhere, for any office, go uncontested in a cycle like this one when the wind may be at our backs.

3. It’s time to volunteer. Organizations like Volunteer Blue are putting together volunteer job boards for people with specialized skills – from graphic design to video editing to data analytics. At the same time, canvassing, letters, and phone calls are at their most effective early, before the fall when voters get deluged. If you have a few hours a week, jump in now.

This is a harrowing moment. The damage Trump has done is going to last for the rest of our lives. But in every crisis there’s also opportunity.

It’s time to start kicking and catch the wave.